With nearly 20 years of experience in the Chinese education market, Roy Li is a seasoned expert in the shifting landscape of international student recruitment. Roy has witnessed the “golden time” of US education—when PhDs and scholarships were the primary drivers—he has a front-row seat to the market’s evolution. As a key member of the Quallege team, Roy helps US universities navigate a complex landscape where traditional recruitment methods—such as ‘conditional admission’ and ‘pathways’—have lost their appeal and the era of easy-to-find, full-pay students has ended.
The Evolution of the Chinese Market
Roy recalls a time when the path to the US was straightforward. “When I first started… most of the students wanted PhD programs that came with a full scholarship… that’s the golden time of US education.” But today, the market has entered what he calls a “new status.” While the volume of students remains stable, the competition has intensified, and the priorities of families have shifted toward prestige and practical outcomes.
“The general trend is… a very clear trend towards the top-ranking institutions… for the students who recognize the value of a US education and the quality of top American universities, they still regard the US as their first choice.”
Undergrad vs. Graduate: A Tale of Two Trends
“According to Roy, the undergraduate and graduate markets are moving in opposite directions. Undergraduate enrollment is facing a downturn, driven by the rise of transnational education (TNE) programs—such as NYU Shanghai and Duke Kunshan—and increased competitiveness from domestic Chinese universities.”
- Undergraduate: “The downtrend will continue… except for the very, very talented students. For Ivy League, for top ten, top twenty, they will stay in this category.”
- Graduate: This remains a “flourishing and stable” scenario, driven heavily by STEM designations. “STEM graduate programs are more and more popular… Computer Science, Data Science, AI… and also the business programs with STEM designations… because of the longer OPT and the advantages in employment.”
The Challenges: Geopolitics, Economy, and Policy
Recruiting in China isn’t without its hurdles. Roy identifies three major “down forces” currently affecting demand:
- Unstable Relations: “Many parents are scared, they think the US is not safe. So how about going to Hong Kong and Singapore? Because it’s very close… if there’s a war, my children can come back very soon.”
- Economic Weakness: “The changing Chinese economy… coupled with the rising cost of US education… will cause some students to alter their plans or make scholarships even more important.”
- Visa Policy Shifts: Recent changes to the H-1B visa selection process—moving from a random lottery to a salary-level-based system—creates anxiety. “The new graduate students may find it difficult to find a job with H1-B status. All these factors may have a negative impact.”
Why Agents Remain the “Trust Infrastructure”
Despite the digital age, Roy emphasizes that 75-85% of Chinese students still rely heavily on education agents. In today’s complex geopolitical and economic climate, these agents act as vital navigators rather than just application processors.
Students turn to them for “holistic” services that are nearly impossible to navigate independently, such as:
- Strategic Profile Building: Accessing exclusive research internships or scientific labs to stand out in a hyper-competitive field.
- Expert Navigation: Identifying high-ROI programs (like STEM-designated business degrees) that align with shifting visa regulations.
- Data-Driven Matching: Utilizing proprietary databases that “match” a student’s specific background to the nuanced requirements of top-tier US institutions.
“The agent helps them plan their application based on their background… this is usually very difficult to find on Google or Baidu.”
How US Universities Can Stay Competitive
The demand for high-ranking US programs is still very much alive, but capturing it requires a more sophisticated approach. Roy’s advice to American institutions is simple: be present and be generous.
“First, a generous scholarship. Scholarships are very important. Second… work with highly qualified organizations (like Quallege)… so that the university can have a presence with local people in the market. Every university is struggling… they cannot fly to China every month to recruit students.” That is where Quallege comes in. By acting as a local extension of the university, Roy and his team bridge the gap: “I can visit our recruitment partners and students as needed.”
The demand in China hasn’t disappeared; it has matured. Success now depends on having deep local relationships and a strong, value-driven offering that addresses modern concerns about safety, cost, and career outcomes.